20 Apr 2011

It`s funny how in a moment`s notice things can change. Sometimes I think that Washington and our politicians are like teenagers. One minute they like this person, then this person is talking about this person, so they can`t like this person. Their likes and dislikes shift like the wind. I am talking about these crazy antics in the Republican side of Washington and their struggle to find their candidates for the run for President. So, this is the earliest I have called this, but here I go! It`s the official start of the silly season! We tried to hold it off as long as we could. But this season is like Xmas season to retailers. By the way, I anticipate Xmas will be bumped back to Oct. When retailers get wind that early political money is floating around they are going to want to throw the Xmas shopping season in before politician start begging Americans for their money. And before all the billions are dumped into TV and billboard ads. So, the bi...

04 Apr 2011

The only Republican that I see as having a real shot against Obama next year, unless something huge game changer comes along, is just starting to see some polling done on him. The pattern among them is a low disapproval rating, with a slightly higher approval rating, leaving the vast majority saying they don't have an opinion. He's never been in the national news much, so this isn't a surprise. What it means, though, is that Huntsman has yet to be defined. Every candidate has a brand, and that brand is often picked up quickly as they come into the scene. Like a first impression in an interview, if an underdog candidate like Huntsman wants to have a shot, he has to try and control his first impression as much as possible. If he's lucky, his opponents won't take him seriously and give him time. If the the rumors that he has a serious network of donors through his father's political connections end up panning out, he could spend big early and try...

01 Feb 2011

Swaying primaries in favor of candidates who set aside partisanship in order to get things done is the guiding ideal that will be motivating the No Labels organization in the next year, say the group's leaders. The keys to accomplishing that are seen as building a large organization that politicians will have to take seriously and raising money. In a weekly leaders' call Monday morning, founding leader Nancy Jacobson discussed the National Day of Action the group is planning for 2012. "We're going to be spending about 60 percent of our time monitoring what's going on in Congress. We're going to be vigilantly watching, and hopefully bringing this community along to let their voices be heard in Washington. The other thing we're going to be working toward is a National Day of Action, which will happen sometime a year from now in six states, three on the Republican side, three on the Democratic side, in open primary states. "We are going to get...

29 Jan 2011

Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza, at Washington Posts The Fix, ask a good question here: Do Republicans try to be more bipartisan and risk making Obama bulletproof in 2012? Or do they keep being the "party of no" and try to create a second-straight referendum on the Democratic Party? It might not really be a decision at all. A lot of a Congress's and a president's approval ratings have to do with the perception of the economy. If things get better, it's going to be harder for Republicans to keep blocking everything and blaming the Democrats. If they don't, that strategy may continue to work. For now, it's going to be an interesting dance for the GOP. And it will be interesting to see if perceptions of Obama and the GOP continue to rise in tandem. Its really not going to be easy for them. As the post describes, the GOP has seen its numbers climb since it took the rhetoric down a few notches. If the economy keeps improving and they really go aft...

13 Jan 2011

In this series of posts, I will be giving a brief background on all the plausible candidates for the Republican Nomination in 2012. I will be using a rating system to grade each candidate’s ability to win the nomination. I realize the system is imperfect and if any readers think I’ve put a candidate in a category where he or she doesn’t belong, or even if I’ve left out a possible candidate entirely, please say so in the comments below. The second category is the contenders...   Contender-This describes your average candidate, they could receive the nomination but the odds favor more heavy-weights. They are usually in the middle of the party’s ideological spectrum and are often perceived as ‘safe choices’ due to their adherence to the establishment. This describes John McCain after his campaign imploded in the summer of 2007. Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota must compete with more exciting candidates and some believ...

26 Nov 2010

Benjamin Sarlin, on over at The Daily Beast, has a great post detailing some of the things the GOP has going for it, and listing off some of the assets and liabilities among the republican contenders for president in 2012. “The Republican field is wide open with no clear frontrunner because they are all, in some respects, flawed,” Mark McKinnon, a Republican strategist and Daily Beast contributor, said in an email. “I think to beat Obama we're going to have to have a much better field of candidates than are currently there,” Ryan Rhodes, a political consultant and chairman of the Iowa Tea Party Patriots, told The Daily Beast. His counterpart in the early caucus state of Maine didn’t sound any more pumped. “The modern parlance of ‘meh’ pretty much sums up the lineup,” Andrew Ian Dodge, coordinator for the state Tea Party Patriots, said. Jeff Patch, a longtime Republican consultant in Iowa currently based in DC, described the situation as a “ma...

20 Nov 2010

This is exactly centrist independents DON'T need. The center of the American electorate is starting to wake up. Its just a nascent groundswell at this point, but the way things are going, I'm hoping that it break out into something that can genuinely be called a movement sometime in the next decade or two - largely dependent on how bad the two major parties get, and whether centrist parties and organizations start learning how to run campaigns well (which they're pretty terrible at now). The next few election cycles are vitally important - what happens in the next few years will shape how the American electorate thinks about independents, as more centrists and moderates leave the two major parties. This is why we need to do everything we can to dissuade a wingnut like Donald Trump to NOT run for president as an independent. Donald Trump is a cartoon of a human being. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that he'd win [editor's note -...

11 Nov 2010

A whole slew of terrible polling numbers have been coming out in the last few days, showing that Obama is incredibly soft, with under a year before the 2012 presidential cycle will start to heat up in my neighboring state of Iowa (my poor car... I'm going to be all over that state during the GOP primaries!). Larry Sabato, of the aptly named Sabato's Crystal Ball, has this to say about how Obama looks right now: We have just entered the 2012 presidential election cycle, and the news is grim for the incumbent. While at least one recent poll gives Obama the lead against Sarah Palin, he is trailing in hypothetical match-ups against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Even worse, only 38% in another recent poll said they believed Obama “deserves re-election.” Its sad that the best thing going for him right now is the fact that his competition is fairly likely to wither in the face of closer scrutiny....

26 Jul 2010

There has been quite a bit of chatter the last few days over how Republicans seem to be shooting themselves in the foot by tacking so far to the right. The fervor that is clearly favoring the right continues to lead most observers to predict big gains for the GOP in an upcoming wave election, a probable takeover in the House and likely a comfortable enough margin in the Senate that the Democrats won't be able to peel off enough moderates to overcome filibuster threats without injecting more of what Republicans want into legislation. On the flip side, moving so far to the right is turning off more and more moderates, driving many to even leave the party altogether and causing many to wonder whether the strategy of just riding the disappointment with Obama and not providing real policy solutions that the GOP could push for and campaign on in 2011 and 2012 is charting a course for a sure fire loss in 2012. Fairly moderate Republican, and reasonab...